The NRL season kicks off this week *pumps fist* I can’t wait for this shit. Being the league Stan that I am I’ve been talking with friends about who will make the top 8 and decided to get my armchair expert on and chuck up my picks here at the blog. If you’re a league head, let me know your thoughts on the ‘08 season.

TOP 8 (in no particular order)

Melbourne Storm

This is a no-brainer really. They didn’t win the comp last year and the minor premiership in ‘06 by accident, this team is fast becoming a dynasty like the Broncos in the ’90s. The secret to their success is having good players in three key positions (Cooper Cronk at halfback, Cameron Smith at hooker, Billy Slater at fullback), workhorse forwards (especially Michael Crocker and Dallas Johnson) and gamebreakers in the backs (Greg Inglis and Israel Folau). I don’t think Melbourne is unbeatable, but they will be in the top 8 without a doubt, and almost certainly the top 4 at that. Keep an eye out for Liam Foran, a guy they’re touting as the next great halfback and best of all, a Kiwi!

Parramatta Eels

I’ve always liked the Eels because like the Bulldogs they usually have a bunch of Kiwis in the side. The Eels had arguably the best outside backs in the comp last year and minus Timana Tahu they’ve retained that strike power for ‘08. Jarryd Hayne and Krisnan Inu alone should threaten most defences, but now that they’re in the centres that might lessen their chances of being in space. Then there’s also Eric Grothe Jr, Luke Burt and Tim Smith if he gets it together. With Nathan Cayless, Nathan Hindmarsh, Feleti Mateo, Mark Riddell and Fuifui Moimoi, the Eels have a pretty balanced forward pack that can produce the flashy offloads or just grind out the metres. The rule change this year to a 10-man interchange will work in the Eels’ favour as it’s gonna reward teams with speed and mobility.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs are killing it under the directorship of Russell Crowe and have recruited mean as in the past two seasons. Their forward pack, which is effectively the same as the Kiwis, is probably one of the best in the comp with Roy Asotasi, David Fa’alogo, Issac Luke, David Kidwell and John Sutton among others. Last year they suffered from a lack of attacking ability, but the addition of Craig Wing at halfback should hopefully remedy that. Wing and his partnership with standoff Ben Rogers will be crucial to the Rabbits’ chances of making the 8 and kicking on from there. I hope Eddie Paea gets a chance in the halves too and I hope Jeremy Smith stays on the sidelines the whole damn season. If the outside backs like Fetuli Talanoa, Nigel Vagana (although his pace is on the slide) and Nathan Merritt get the ball in space, it should be try time.

Sydney Roosters

This team on paper is one of the best in the comp. They’ve got Mark O’Meley, Willie Mason, Anthony Tupou and Craig Fitzgibbon in the forwards, Iosia Soliola, Amos Roberts and Anthony Minichiello in the backs. Then you factor in guys like Setaimata Sa, Frank-Paul Nu’uausala, Sam Perrett, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Danny Nutley and it’s a pretty mean team. The combination of Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pearce in the halves will be crucial, and in the case of Pearce, I think the 10-man interchange will benefit him and his small size. I reckon the Roosters could potentially win it this year under Brad Fittler, but I still think they’re another year off truly pushing for the title.

NZ Warriors

Being the patriot that I am I’m always gonna go for the Warriors, but at least in recent seasons the team has repaid my faith in them by actually winning. Thanks to Ivan Cleary, Graham Hart and smart recruiting the Warriors have built a real solid foundation to work from for years to come I reckon. A lot of people are writing our chances off this year because of Wade McKinnon’s season-ending injury, but let’s put it in perspective: we’ve lost him, but we’ve gained another attacking back in Brent Tate which cancels that loss out. With Tate and Jerome Ropati in the centres it frees up Mannering to move into the forwards and so it’s almost like we’ve gained another player there. If McKinnon was fit the Warriors would be top 4 certainties, but even without him I think we’re definite top 8 material. We probably have one of the fittest packs in the comp (Steve Price, Ruben Wiki, Michael Luck, Wairangi Koopu) which is gonna prove valuable with the 10-man interchange. It’ll be interesting to see how new recruits Ian Henderson and Ryan Shortland go and Aidan Kirk in particular at fullback. Hopefully Manu Vatuvei has been practicing catching in the off-season and Sonny Fai gets a lot of game time too.

North Queensland Cowboys

If it wasn’t for Matt Bowen and Jonathon Thurston I don’t think the Cowboys would make anyone’s top 8, but the reality is that those two are that good. Halfback, hooker, stand-off and fullback have always been the key positions in league (hence why the Kiwis rarely win, because we always have good centres, second-rowers and props) and if you can have at least two of those positions covered by class players then you’re good to go. Aside from Bowen and Thurston, the Cowboys have a pretty good forward pack too with Luke O’Donnell, Jacob Lillyman and Carl Webb in particular. Sione Faumuina has heaps of ability, but he’s a bit of a Ma’a Nonu in that regard; heapsa talent, no brains. I don’t think the Cowboys are a premiership threat, but if they remain injury-free they’ll be top 8 no doubt.

Manly Sea Eagles

I don’t really like shit all players from Manly, but they did come second last year and I don’t think it was purely by chance. They definitely have some good players in key positions - Matt Orford at halfback and Brett Stewart at fullback - but I think their forward pack is pretty wack besides their back rowers (Anthony Watmough, Steve Menzies and Luke Williamson). They’ve got some good backs in Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai, but I still feel like Manly lacks enough attacking power and speed to match some of the other frontrunners. Defensively they’re a very good team, but I don’t know if that’s gonna win teams the NRL in this day and age. I’ll be surprised (and disappointed :P) if Manly is in the top 4 again.

Brisbane Broncos

There’s basically only one reason why these guys will make it in the top 8 this year: Darren Lockyer. The Broncos have lost quite a lot of key figures in recent years, but with Lockyer there you can’t write them off. Karmichael Hunt, as much as I hate him, is crucial to the Broncos chances too and with Justin Hodges running off him and Lockyer they still have a lot of firepower. The loss of Petrol Seventy-Cents-a-Litre to the Panthers for Joel Clinton is hardly a fair exchange and with Brad Thorn and Dane Carlaw gone too, the Broncos forward pack is looking a lot weaker. In saying that, if young guys like Greg Eastwood, Dave Taylor and Ben Hannant step up the Broncos could and should still make the 8.

Other teams that could push for the 8:

Bulldogs - with so many valuable personnel losses in recent seasons their chances hinge almost entirely on Sonny Bill. Relying on a forward to make plays for your team has never worked in the past so someone in the backs is gonna have to step up. This year will prove whether Ben Roberts can cut it or not in the NRL.

Dragons - these guys have had a mean team for ages now but still struggle. If their new young guys like Chase Stanley and Rangi Chase continue to develop and Gasnier and Cooper pair up in the centres again, the Dragons could definitely make the 8.

Tigers - their chances are almost entirely down to Benji Marshall and his plastic body. If he stays fit they’re a chance of the 8 for sure. Chris Lawrence, Brett Hodgson and Robbie Farah are other key players.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 at 1:27 pm and is filed under Sport, The Halfcast Broadcast. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.